BTC – Bitcoin Continues to Range

Bitcoin continues to range between $25,000 and $31,000, a pattern ongoing since March of 2023 as we wait for a breakout in either direction. The analysis in the chart below is one I conjured in October of 2022 and so far has been on point with one *critical* exception; Bitcoin has not touched the lifetime support line as I hoped it would by early 2023. Historically, prior to every bull run, Bitcoin has come in contact with lifetime support.

BTC Continues to Range

The last time the Bitcoin price made contact with lifetime support was in March of 2020 when the monthly candle closed with a long tail, creating a signal bar to the upside. The price at the low of that bar was $4,000, and the high at the end of the bull run was $64,000. If you look to the left of that signal bar, you can see where the price missed the lifetime support and went bull, only to fall 9 months later into lifetime support. I believe we need to have capitulation to lifetime support before the next all-time high. As you can see in this chart, the Bitcoin halving is due around March of 2024. Lifetime support will be at $20,000 during that month which isn't far from the current price range, seems like a good time to make contact!

The blue and orange arrows estimate when the next contact with lifetime resistance will be made. These estimates are based on the distance between highs and lows for the lifetime of Bitcoin, which include data on the lengthening lifecycles that have led up until 2020. That data supports the April 2025 estimate, the April 2024 estimate is based on a shortened cycle. This range is a comfortable home for Bitcoin, and we will likely be here for the rest of 2023.


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