BTC/USD Weekly Analysis Update – Bear Correction Incoming?
BTC/USD has broken out of the $25,000 and $33,000 trading range, reaching $35,000 and nearing the top of the bull channel. Does this mean the next bull run has begun? Unlikely. I believe we are missing a few key events before we see a bull run to the next all-time high.
BTC has yet to touch lifetime support as it has the last 2 out of 3 bull runs to new all-time highs. In August 2015 and March 2020, the price action touched lifetime support in a final capitulation before hitting new highs. The only exception was the 2011-2013 bull run.
We have also not had the March/April 2024 BTC halving, which has happened prior to every bull run to new all-time highs. The weekly RSI is also near overbought levels, and while that is a weak indicator on its own, it supports these data that indicate we need more downside before the next bull run.
The #1 signal in my analysis is the contact with lifetime support. If contact happens within months of the BTC halving, the price would be around $21,000. Contact with lifetime and support and the BTC halving event would be the ultimate bull signal in this Weekly analysis.
On the Weekly chart, I would wait for the price to fall below $25,000 before buying more BTC. We do not yet have a short signal or confirmation of a failed breakout, so it would be wise to wait before entering a short. The shorter timeframes are another story, an additional analysis I will post soon zooming into the hourly candles.
As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!