USDJPY → Bear Run Complete! Bounce back to 152.000? Let’s Answer

USDJPY has officially broken out of the bull channel it's been in since February 2023 and fell hard into the Weekly 200EMA! The final Daily bear candle closed with a large wick over 1/3 the total size and the following Daily candle closed with a long tail as well. Does that mean we're going up?


How do we trade this? 🤔

USDJPY → Bear Run Complete! Bounce back to 152.000? Let's Answer

A bear breakout on a bull channel after the double top reversal is usually a signal that we're about to enter a trading range (sideways price action). We have a good show of Support at the 200EMA and possibly up to the previous high in the bull channel between 143.850 and 144.850, but we need confirmation to ensure that this Support zone is real which includes a strong bull followthrough candle on the Daily chart.

Look to long toward the bottom of the trading range after it's been established, an entry around the 145.000 area is reasonable looking for a 1:1 scalp or 1:2 swing on a lower timeframe.


💡 Trade Idea 💡

Long Entry: 145.500
🟥 Stop Loss: 143.200
✅ Take Profit: 150.100
⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio: 1:2


🔑 Key Takeaways 🔑

1. Bear Breakout of Bull Channel, Entering Trading Range.
2. Three Legs Down to Daily 200EMA.
3. Two Large Wicks on 200EMA, Look for Confirmation.
4. Trend Change, Establishing Trading Range between 145.000 and 152.000.
5. RSI at 35.00 and below Moving Average. Wait for Confirmation to Long.


⚠️ Risk Warning! ⚠️
Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trades. Trade at your own risk!


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